Strategic report
Governance
Financial statements
81 OCU Group Annual report and financial statements 2026
Reporting and performance continued TCFD report
Scenario analysis and resilience continued Cross-scenario risk and opportunity assessment Risk or opportunity Current policies
Delayed transition
Net zero
FY26 management response
Energy transformation market growth
Moderate to high, but slower and less predictable.
High, particularly after policy acceleration.
Very high, with earlier and more orderly demand.
Maintain balanced exposure across Power Transmission & Distribution and Energy Transformation markets; align capability to grid, renewables, solar, BESS and low‑carbon heat. Integrate acquisitions into Group governance, risk, safety, sustainability and reporting processes.
Australian renewable energy platform
Growth continues, but physical risk is higher and may disrupt delivery. Moderate opportunity, dependent on local policy and client investment. Weather disruption and slower client decisions may pressure margins. Slower capex pressure, but risk of future catch-up if policy accelerates. Highest long-term risk, especially in Australia and New Zealand. Investors and clients may question resilience under higher physical risk.
Strong opportunity with higher execution and mobilisation pressure. Higher opportunity as heat decarbonisation accelerates after policy catch-up. Highest risk due to fast-changing policy, specifications and supply chain constraints. Highest risk of compressed investment and technology bottlenecks. Moderate to high near and medium-term risk. Expectations rise as transition accelerates and markets scrutinise delivery capacity.
Strongest opportunity with clearer policy, investment and technology signals.
Heat networks and low‑carbon heat
High opportunity as low‑carbon heat investment scales.
Develop Valmech as the Group platform for heat networks and mechanical engineering delivery.
Contract and margin risk
Manageable where transition is orderly and costs are priced effectively.
Strengthen bid governance, climate risk pricing, pass-through mechanisms, weather provisions and project controls.
Fleet, plant and equipment transition
Higher near-term investment, with better long-term planning visibility. Lower long-term risk, but acute weather remains material. Strong opportunity if targets, data and delivery are credible.
Use phased replacement, trials, route optimisation, charging strategy, supplier engagement and lease-versus-buy flexibility.
Physical climate risk
Implement heat, bushfire, flood, storm and remote-site controls; develop physical climate KPIs and operational thresholds.
Reputation and disclosure expectations
Improve climate data controls, acquisition boundary treatment, target reporting and investor-facing narrative.
Quantitative sensitivity framework OCU will continue to improve quantification of its principal climate risks and opportunities.
Quantification area
Suggested metric
Financial linkage
Scenario relevance
Energy transformation opportunity
Revenue pipeline and secured order book linked to grid, BESS, solar, renewables, EV charging, low-carbon heat and water resilience. Percentage of fleet and plant lower-carbon, charging points, fuel consumption, and capex per asset class.
Revenue growth, gross margin, EBITDA and order book quality.
Highest under net zero; most volatile under delayed transition.
Fleet and plant decarbonisation
Capex, depreciation, operating costs, emissions intensity and tender competitiveness. Revenue recognition timing, preliminaries, margin, claims and cash conversion. Compliance, investor confidence, tender competitiveness and target credibility.
Highest transition pressure under net zero and delayed transition. Highest under current policies; material in all scenarios for Australia and New Zealand.
Weather-related disruption Weather delay days, heat-related stand-downs, flood or storm‑related access restrictions and bushfire smoke impacts.
Emissions and targets
Scope 1, Scope 2 and material Scope 3 emissions, carbon intensity, and acquisition boundary adjustments.
Important in all scenarios; most scrutinised under net zero.
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