Strategic report
Governance
Financial statements
80 OCU Group Annual report and financial statements 2026
Reporting and performance continued TCFD report
Scenario analysis and resilience continued Detailed scenario outcomes Current policies
Financial implications under delayed transition High revenue growth potential from medium-term acceleration in grid, renewables, BESS, solar and low-carbon heat.
Under current policies, transition investment continues but more slowly and unevenly. Long‑term demand remains across electrification, networks, renewables, EV infrastructure, low-carbon heat and water resilience. OCU remains resilient through regulated investment, asset renewal and maintenance, although transition-led opportunity is lower than under net zero. Higher warming increases physical risk. ANZ outdoor work faces heat, smoke, flooding, storms, water constraints and logistics disruption; the UK may see greater need for water resilience, flood defence and network hardening.
Elevated tendering, mobilisation and delivery pressure as clients accelerate programs.
Higher working capital requirements due to larger and faster-moving project pipelines.
Greater risk of margin dilution if inflation, specification changes, weather disruption and legislative change are not priced or recoverable. Higher capex requirements for lower-carbon fleet, plant, charging infrastructure and site power solutions. Net zero Under net zero, policy, capital and technology move earlier towards a 1.5˚C-aligned transition, providing OCU’s strongest strategic opportunity. The strongest demand is expected across grid reinforcement, renewables, solar, BESS, EV charging, low-carbon heat, Water & Environmental and Digital Infrastructure. ANZ and Valmech broaden participation. The principal risk is delivering at pace while protecting safety, quality, cash and margin, supported by disciplined investment in people, plant, systems, supply chain and governance. Financial implications under net zero Highest revenue opportunity across Energy Transformation, Power Transmission & Distribution, solar, BESS, heat networks and climate resilience. Increased capex and operating investment in lower-carbon fleet, plant, charging and temporary site energy solutions.
Financial implications under current policies • Moderate to high revenue opportunity, but lower than under net zero. • Higher weather-related operating costs, delay risk and project disruption.
• Greater importance of weather allowances, delay mechanisms and cost recovery in contract terms. • Potential increase in insurance, health and safety controls, project planning and resilience spend. • Slower near-term fleet and plant decarbonisation capex, but higher future catch-up risk if policy later accelerates. Delayed transition Under delayed transition, policy action accelerates later, creating a possible surge in infrastructure demand and pressure on supply chain capacity. This creates material opportunity across networks, renewables, BESS, heat and water resilience, alongside execution risk and pressure on labour, materials and specialist equipment. Technology risk also increases if fleet and plant decarbonisation accelerates before suitable options or remote-site charging are widely available.
Stronger strategic fit with clients seeking lower‑carbon, technically capable delivery partners.
Potential improvement in investor confidence where climate strategy, data and targets are credible.
Continued need for adaptation controls, particularly for Australian and New Zealand works, because acute weather risk remains material even in a lower-warming pathway.
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